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1. COURSE OBJECTIVES
This course is designed to equip students with the knowledge, methods and tools of economic forecasts and business, such as a simple forecasting models, forecast method using time series decomposition analysis, ARIMA models, and VAR models. In this module, students have a lot of time to practice forecasting for time series using popular and modern statistical software. After the course, students not only understand and use forecasting tools in economics and business, but also master how to analyze and forecast the activities of organizations in the economy and the economy as a whole. Consequently, students can provide suggestions and understand how a manager can make the right decisions and policies.
2. COURSE CONTENTS
No.
Contents
Time Allocation
Contribution to CLO
Hour(s) on the class
Essays, exercise,
Assignments
(3)
Self-study with teacher’s tutorials
(4)
Lecture
(1)
Practice, Seminar
(2)
1
Chapter 1: Introduction to forecasting and time series data
3
0
0
6
1, 6
2
Chapter 1: Introduction to forecasting and time series data (cont.)
3
0
1
6
1, 5, 6
3
Chapter 2: Simple forecasting models
3
0
0
6
1, 5, 6
4
Chapter 2: Simple forecasting models (cont.)
3
0
2
6
3, 4, 5, 6
5
Chapter 2: Simple forecasting models (cont.)
3
0
3
4.5
1, 2, 3, 4, 6
6
Chapter 3: Time series decomposition method
3
0
2
6
1, 2, 5, 6
7
Chapter 3: Time series decomposition method (cont.)
3
0
3
4.5
3, 4, 5, 6
8
Chapter 4: The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA model) methodology
3
0
0
6
1, 2, 5, 6
9
Chapter 4: The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA model) methodology (cont.)
3
0
1.5
6
3, 4, 5, 6
10
Chapter 4: The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA model) methodology (cont.)
3
0
3
4.5
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
11
Chapter 5: VAR model
3
0
0
6
1, 2, 5, 6
12
Chapter 5: VAR model (cont.)
3
0
3
4.5
1, 2, 5, 6
13
Chapter 5: VAR model (cont.)
3
0
0
6
3, 4, 5, 6
14
Chapter 5: VAR model (cont.)
3
0
2
4.5
3, 4, 5, 6
15
Course Review
3
0
2
6
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Total (hour)
45
0
22.5
82.5
3. COURSE ASSESSMENT
- Score ladder: 10
- Type of assessment
Form
Content
Criteria
CLO
Proportion
Formative
Attendance
- Attend all lectures
- Answer to questions and practice exercises, and contribute to the lectures
- The number of attendances and participation in lesson
- Complete assigned exercises.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
10%
Group report
- Form: Essay from 10 to 15 pages
- Content: Each group has to write a report based on the data given by lecturer or the students have to collect data
- Clearly and , reasonably identify a feasible topic;
- Analyze the problem logically and straightforwardly, and apply in practice;
- Use rich, diverse, and attractive references;
- Use clear-cut language and appropriate citations.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
30%
Summative
Final test
multiple choice and writing questions for 60 minutes
- What have been studied during the course
- Answer correctly all the MCQs.
- Answer correctly and completely all the writing questions.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
60%
Total
100%